Crew SC had nearly locked down a playoff spot in late September, but only clinched last weekend with their 2-0 win over Toronto FC. That win also had the added effect of giving Crew SC near complete control of their playoff destiny. They can't get the number one seed, the Red Bulls have that locked up. With a win, however, they can lock down the second seed and a bye.
Both Sports Club Stats and American Soccer Analysis have updated their projections for the MLS Playoffs with a single week remaining and it's looking pretty good for Crew SC.
Second is now the most common outcome. SCS sees it slightly better than a 50/50 chance while ASA is more bullish (as usual) with a five in eight shot at the second seed. Fourth is the second most popular outcome with a one in four chance.
Now on to the possibilities. Again the win officially pushes the chance of making the playoffs to 100%. The surge up the standings also increases the chances that the team ends up hosting a game, with the remote possibility of finishing fifth.
Both ASA and SCS models see Crew SC have a greater than 50/50 shot of grabbing that bye that comes with the second seed. Those chances shot up from last week when ASA has that 17.4% and SCS was at 14.25%. That win against Toronto and Montreal's defeat of New England really shook things up coming into the final day.
And as an added bonus, here is how #DecisionDay could break down courtesy of Nate Beckman. A lot is going on the final day. Crew SC can land anywhere from second to fifth. Here's how they can do it:
Updated quick ref guide of #CrewSC scenarios. Put it in your digital pocket. Stare. Wonder. #CrewSC4caster pic.twitter.com/rDCibRK9PO— Nate Beckman (@BeckmanNate) October 18, 2015
Head spinning permutations if Crew SC fail to win next Sunday. A tie will see them drop to at least 3rd, with 4th a very real possibility. A loss all but confirms hosting a play-in game midweek with a road game possibly looming.