Columbus Crew SC had the weekend off, as did most of MLS. That left the team still not officially in the MLS Playoffs starting later this month. They can take care of that with a single point in their next two games or Orlando dropping any points between now and the end.
Columbus also has a near insurmountable in the goal differential tiebreaker that would count. It's currently -2 to -10. So Crew SC have to collapse and Orlando win out, while making up eight goals. Improbable.
ASA remains more rosy about Crew SC in general than SCS, but both see the fifth seed as the most likely spot for the Black & Gold to fall. SCS even sees a significant chance that Columbus ends up in sixth, while ASA sees the probability as remote. Still, there is a significant chance that Crew SC will fail to host a game and it's likely that they miss out on the bye. Breakdown below.
Crew SC also moved ever so slightly to hosting a playoff game and having a bye. The direction depends on the model. ASA's weighted model is slightly more positive for the Black & Gold earning a top two seed or a top four spot. The average on both actually moved slightly higher over the weekend after the New York Red Bulls win over the Montreal Impact on Wednesday and Montreal's win over the Colorado Rapids on Saturday were factored in.
SCS's neutral evaluation isn't as kind with the chance of a top four seed approaching a 50/50 proposition. The model also occasionally spits out Crew SC missing the playoffs. It still would take a collapse of epic proportion for Columbus to fall out of the top six.
Two wins could see Crew SC shoot up to second while a winless end to the season brings the real possibility of sixth.