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Crew Playoffs 4caster - Game 27

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With a win against Chivas, Columbus stayed right in the thick of the playoff race.

Meram, for the win...
Meram, for the win...
Sam Fahmi

Current Playoff Outlook: Still Truckin'

With a win and a loss since the last 4caster, Columbus stayed relatively even in the playoff race over the last two weeks.  However, things will tighten further as teams below them make up their games in hand.

Here's the current standings.  Going forward, these will be sorted in the standard order: PTS, W, GD, GF...  Since all teams are within 2 games of each other, I'll no longer sort by PPG.

MLS Eastern Conference Standings

Standings_09.07_medium

The Race - Now With Actual 4casting!

This week I'm adding an *actual forecast* to the race.  Until now, everything I've posted as far as projections has been based on past performance.  For instance, a team with 1.35 PPG would have a little blue box that projects farther than a team with 1.31 PPG.  This did not take into account strength of schedule, weather, new player acquisitions, feelings, an aura of incompetence, witchcraft or Justin Meram's ability to bend space-time.  All these things are now included in my Eastern Conference projections below (red boxes).  I slogged through all 41 remaining games involving Eastern Conference teams and made current (9/7) predictions. This also gives us the chance to see how accurate (or way off) I am by comparing the mathy projections to my own.

Note: Some values are not visible (Looking at you, Montreal's point total).

Eastrace_09.07_medium

Black = Points earned.  Blue = Projected points.  Gray = Potential points.  Red = 4casted points.

The Not-Quite-Heidi Klum "In" or "Out" Analysis:

  • In: SKC, DCU
  • Battling for Final 3 Spots: Revs, Crew, Red Bulls, Philly, TFC.
  • Keep Hope Alive: Houston, Chicago (barely)
  • Dehors: Montreal

Crew Playoff Breakdown

Category
Statistic Notes

4casted Pts Needed For Crew To Make Playoffs (3rd, 4th, 5th)

3rd - 47

4th - 46

5th - 46

All points are now the 4casted projections (the red ones in the picture above)

While I'm projecting the Revs to land on 51 points, I'm saying only 47 would be needed to end the season in 3rd.

Current Crew 4cast
46 Approaching the historical playoff benchmark of 50 points.  50 goals is also within reach; projecting at 48.

Projected Additional Points Needed for Playoffs

10 46 - 36 = 10

Example Record & PPG needed for 10 points in 7 games

3-3-1, 1.43

Of the final 7 games, only 3 are at home.  Road points will be essential to reach playoffs.

Crew could host MLS Cup against:

Colorado, Vancouver Only Vancouver is in playoff position







Who Do I Root For This Week?

  • DC over New York on Wednesday
  • Philly - New York to tie on Saturday
  • Montreal over New England
  • Chicago over TFC, which starts at the same time as Crew-Dynamo

What if...


If... ...Then
Best Case
LA beats Montreal
DC beats NY
Chivas beats SKC
Philly - NY tie
Montreal over NE
Chicago beats TFC
Columbus beats Houston

Bc_9-14_medium

  • Crew would be in 4th with 39 points; tied for 3rd with Revs, but losing the tiebreaker (wins).
  • 4 points clear of 6th place in the East. (New York would be there with 35 points)
  • Would pull to within 6 points of Kansas City for 2nd in East.
Worst Case
Montreal beats LA
NY beats DC
SKC beats Chivas
NY edges Philly*
NE beats Montreal
TFC beats Chicago
Houston beats Columbus
Wc_9-14_medium
  • 3-way tie for 4th-6th place on points; tiebreakers lost to NY on wins, Philly on GD (would have to overcome Crew's current 2-goal advantage)
  • *NY win vs Philly marginally worse since Crew only play NY one more time, play Philly twice
  • Houston would be only 2 points behind Columbus with a game in hand.
My Guess
LA beat Montreal
NY beats DC
SKC beats Chivas
Philly - NY tie
NE beats Montreal
Chicago beats TFC
Columbus - Houston tie

My_guess_9-14_medium

  • NY earns 4 of 6 points on the week, leapfrogs Crew
  • Columbus stays in 5th by way of goal diff tiebreaker.

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