Current Playoff Outlook: Still Truckin'
With a win and a loss since the last 4caster, Columbus stayed relatively even in the playoff race over the last two weeks. However, things will tighten further as teams below them make up their games in hand.
Here's the current standings. Going forward, these will be sorted in the standard order: PTS, W, GD, GF... Since all teams are within 2 games of each other, I'll no longer sort by PPG.
MLS Eastern Conference Standings
The Race - Now With Actual 4casting!
This week I'm adding an *actual forecast* to the race. Until now, everything I've posted as far as projections has been based on past performance. For instance, a team with 1.35 PPG would have a little blue box that projects farther than a team with 1.31 PPG. This did not take into account strength of schedule, weather, new player acquisitions, feelings, an aura of incompetence, witchcraft or Justin Meram's ability to bend space-time. All these things are now included in my Eastern Conference projections below (red boxes). I slogged through all 41 remaining games involving Eastern Conference teams and made current (9/7) predictions. This also gives us the chance to see how accurate (or way off) I am by comparing the mathy projections to my own.
Note: Some values are not visible (Looking at you, Montreal's point total).
Black = Points earned. Blue = Projected points. Gray = Potential points. Red = 4casted points.
The Not-Quite-Heidi Klum "In" or "Out" Analysis:
- In: SKC, DCU
- Battling for Final 3 Spots: Revs, Crew, Red Bulls, Philly, TFC.
- Keep Hope Alive: Houston, Chicago (barely)
- Dehors: Montreal
Crew Playoff Breakdown
4casted Pts Needed For Crew To Make Playoffs (3rd, 4th, 5th)
3rd - 47
4th - 46
5th - 46
All points are now the 4casted projections (the red ones in the picture above)
While I'm projecting the Revs to land on 51 points, I'm saying only 47 would be needed to end the season in 3rd.
|Current Crew 4cast
||46||Approaching the historical playoff benchmark of 50 points. 50 goals is also within reach; projecting at 48.|
Projected Additional Points Needed for Playoffs
|10||46 - 36 = 10|
Example Record & PPG needed for 10 points in 7 games
|Of the final 7 games, only 3 are at home. Road points will be essential to reach playoffs.|
Crew could host MLS Cup against:
|Colorado, Vancouver||Only Vancouver is in playoff position|
Who Do I Root For This Week?
- DC over New York on Wednesday
- Philly - New York to tie on Saturday
- Montreal over New England
- Chicago over TFC, which starts at the same time as Crew-Dynamo