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Crew Playoffs 4caster - Game 20

The Crew suffered a soul-crushing home mid-week loss, only to follow it with a thrilling, come-from-behind win on Saturday. Where does that leave their playoff chances?

Hugs!
Hugs!
Sam Fahmi

Current Playoff Outlook: Rebooted

My laptop's battery died last week.  I think it knew that its time was near; it had warned me for weeks.  I guess I just didn't want to say goodbye.  My laziness in replacing the battery prior to it rendering my Lappy3000 useless is superseded only by my laziness in replacing it now.  Hence, another short 4caster.

My breakdown of the Crew's position in the MLS East:

Category
Statistic Notes

Projected Pts To Win the East

61 Sporting KC is on a tear, and so is DC.  The two teams meet two more times this season, in a home and away series that could go a long way in deciding the conference.

Projected Pts For Crew To Make Playoffs (5th Place in Eastern Conf)

42 Last week's New York loss and draw coupled with two more Revs losses (Boston Pity Party? Devolution?), the East's last playoff spot may have the least points in MLS history.  No team has ever reached the playoffs with less than 43.
Current Crew Points
23 A win and a loss this week (1.5 PPG) is much closer to the needed pace than the previous 15 games.  If they kept that rate through the rest of the season, they'd end at 41 points... right at the cusp of playoff contention.

Projected Additional Points Needed for Playoffs

19 42-23 = 19

Example Record Needed for 19 points

5-5-4 This is completely within range for a team that has no west coast trips and a steady stream of weaker teams and Saturday games from here on out.

PPG Needed to Make Playoffs

1.36

19/14 = 1.36  Still doable.

To get to the historical standard of 49 points, they would need a 1.86 PPG... but that's looking less necessary each week.







Who or What Do I Root For This Week?

  • No injuries from the plastic sadness that is New England's home turf.
  • San Jose beating Chicago tonight (Wednesday) would be great, but I'm guessing you already root against the Fire on principle.
  • SporKCing over TFC. Until I see it with my own eyes, I won't believe the Turnstile For Coaches has a place in MLS Playoffs.  With their next three games being against the top two clubs in the east plus a rivalry game in Montreal, we'll see where they stand.
  • Any circumstance that might cause an all-star forward or defender (not named Parkhurst) to decide to sit out next week's game vs. Bayern Munich.  I'm not advocating for an injury, but a player passing on the ASG could pave the way for some last-minute 'ppreciation of Pipa or Pipo in Portland.  Of course, if you think about it, only 50% of MLS' all-stars are featured in the game in the first place.
  • Rain.  I'm trying to get new grass in my yard to take.  I lived in apartments from 1996-2014 and am shocked at how much rain it takes for new grass to grow.  Considering starting a Scottsdale-chic trend of gravel/rocks in the front yard.
What if...
This new section will be dedicated to scenario generation.  I'll post the best case, worst case, and my guess as to what will happen.

If... ...Then

Best Case

Crew beats Revs

San Jose beats Fire

This scenario would vault the Crew into 4th place on both PPG and points.

Payback!  This is the first of three critical games between Columbus and New England as they hit late-summer stretch to the playoffs.  The Revs swept the three game series last year, including the final two games of the season which knocked the good guys out of playoff contention.

As if losing eight games in a row wouldn't be enough, and I'm pretty sure that eight is enough, this would also spoil Andrew Farrell bobble head night.  Everything I've read about Andrew Farrell makes him sound like an interesting fella and a great player.  Let's ruin his bobble head night.

My Guess See above I think the Crew and 'Quakes both win their games this week.
Worst Case Crew loses, Chicago wins, No rain

In this case, the Crew drop to a tie for 7th place on PPG with Philly, and lose that tiebreaker based on goal differential.  So, 8th.

Also, my grass dies.