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Columbus Crew 2013 MLS Playoff 4caster - Games 27 & 28

Each week, I update the Columbus Crew's playoff outlook based on their results and the those of their MLS Eastern Conference foes. This week the Crew beat Houston at home, then wilted in the oppressive Kansas City heat.

The Yellow Knight
The Yellow Knight
Sam Fahmi/Massive Report

Current Playoff Outlook: Life Support

First, sorry for the late post this week; I've been a little busy moving my family cross country to the best place on Earth. And still, I need this to be a quickie. After Dos A Cero IV, most of us don't have much capacity to read anyway.

With the loss in Kansas City, the maximum number of points the Crew can reach is now 50. Last year, 52 wasn't enough for the playoffs. This year, the number has hovered around 50-51 but has been falling lately. Here's the view since June 30:


Incredibly, the top 3 teams won and the bottom 7 all lost over the weekend. At press time, Chicago had just tied TFC, which is basically a loss when you're in the playoff hunt in the East. Below are the standings as of 9/11, sorted by PPG.


Here's my breakdown of the Crew's position in the MLS East playoff race:


Projected Pts To Win the East

56 With all 3 top Eastern teams winning, no ground gained. Montreal still with games in hand, but SKC with easier opponents, as mentioned last week.

Projected Pts To Make Playoffs (5th Place in MLS Eastern Conference)

47 Lowest this figure has been since June 30.

Crew Projected Points

39 A win and a loss last week was not enough to raise hopes.

Current Crew Points

32 Warrant had a song called "32 Pennies". Boo Warrant, and boo 32.

Projected Additional Points Needed for Playoffs

15 47 - 32 = 15

PPG Needed for 15 Pts in 6 games

2.5 15/6 = 2.5

Example Record Needed for 15 Pts in 6 Games

One game left to not win, otherwise it's over for 2013.

Season Projection

Considering the unlikelihood of the 5th place spot in the East actually staying at 47 points, The Crew need to win all six of their remaining matches and even then get some help to make the playoffs.


Supporters' Shield

Seattle is finally making up some of their games in hand... and winning them. They have won 7 of 8 and play RSL Friday in a game with huge MLS Cup hosting implications. Montreal hosts the Crew this weekend, while both New York and SKC's next match is against Toronto.

  • Current Points are in black, Projected Points (PPG*34) are in blue, Potential Points are in gray.
  • ROPPG (Remaining Opponents' PPG) gives you an idea of each team's strength of schedule through the rest of the regular season.
  • I chopped some of the width off the image by cinching the points line. This allows for easier browsing; the image will get more spatially accurate as the seasons draws to a close.


Who Do I Root For This Week?

Root For
Toronto @ NYRB
Houston @ Philly
New England @ Chicago

Also a tie.

Odd setup has the 4 teams just above the Crew playing each other. These 4 teams plus the Crew are looking to secure the last 2 playoff spots, so if you think one of these clubs is best suited to make a run, root for them. But then you have to root for them the rest of the year.

The Elimi-Nate-Or 3000


DC United

They are still the worst team in the league; I will include this statement every week it's true. They're now also out of the playoffs.

Toronto FC
TFC could be eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday.

The Elimi-Nate-Or 3000:

Date DC United Eliminated From Playoffs
Projected Date Toronto FC Eliminated From Playoffs
9/14 @ RBNY

Date Toronto FC Fires Coach
TFC outwitted me by instead firing their GM. Sneaky buggers! Recalibrating the coach firing prediction this week... but 2013 is currently the 2nd worst season in their dismal history.