Current Playoff Outlook: Drink To... Wait, Why Am I Drinking? I Forget.
The column this week is brought to you by St. George Spirits' Breaking & Entering Bourbon. If you like things that are great, check it out. You'll need it this season.
Here are the standings as of 8/3, sorted by PPG. With Montreal's loss and New York's win, the Red Bulls can now legitimately say they're in the Supporters Shield race. This season is weird.
Here's my breakdown of the Crew's lame position in the MLS East Playoff race:
Projected Pts To Win Supporters Shield
||Last year the Crew had 52 points but didn't make the playoffs. This year, 57 might be the best in the league? Am I taking crazy pills?|
Projected Pts To Win East
|57||With IMFC in free-fall and NYRB with the easier of the other playoff teams' remaining schedules (ROPPG), are the Red Bulls now in the driver's seat?|
Projected Pts To Make Playoffs (5th Place in MLS Eastern Conference)
Crew Projected Points
If they won their last 12 games, they would just barely win the Supporters Shield.
Current Crew Points
|23||23 was Michael Jordan's number. I used to like 23.|
Projected Additional Points Needed for Playoffs
|27||50-23 = 27|
PPG Needed for 27 pts in 12 games
This number looks more ridiculous each week.
Example Record Needed for 27 Pts in 12 Games
Now 5 games under .500, the Crew will likely endure their 1st losing season since 2007. There are no scenarios in which the Crew could win less than 8 or lose more than 3 of the last 12 games and still earn 27 or more points.
I use this as a way to predict what a team's record will be at a given point in the season. For instance, this is the first step I take when figuring out how soon DC and Toronto (and sadly, now, the Crew) will be eliminated from the playoffs. Remember: If a number is in white, it's real. If it's green, it's a projection.
This also tells us that if the Crew won 7 games in a row, they would only then be in 5th place. Barely.
The Massive Report 4cast Challenge*
*Re-posting and extending deadline, as last week we were all distracted with post-TFC match sadness, the Macklemore/MLS paring and new Crew ownership.
So you've been reading this article, thinking to yourself, "Man, this guy is only somewhat right. If only he was completely correct, like myself." You want a shot at the title? Between now and August 9, send your predictions for:
- Points needed for MLS East Playoffs (5th place)
- Points the Crew will have at the end of the season
Those who correctly predict either category will be mentioned... nay, PRAISED in my season wrap-up article in late October. An overall winner will be awarded the following fancy prizes:
- 1 victory beverage at Hendoc's, courtesy of Massive Report
- An appearance on the 10/28/13 Massive Report Podcast, in which you will be expected to explain why you are so awesome/smart/attractive
Send your picks to me via Twitter @4castnate or email (email@example.com). 1 pick per person, must be present at Hendoc's to drink victory beverage. Void where prohibited. Must be 18 or older to win. Must be 21 or over to consume booze at Hendoc's. No, Massive Report will not buy you booze if you're underage; you'll get a Diet Coke or something. I'll make up a tiebreaker in October if it is needed.
For the record, I've already published my predictions for the season in previous blog articles:
- 51 - Points needed for 5th place in MLS Eastern Conference
- 36 - Points the Crew will have at end of 2013 season
Who Do I Root For This Week?
Not even kidding, here... Last week I almost ditched the games in this section in favor of posting "New Ownership". Thought it too disrespectful to what the Hunts have done for the Crew over the years, so I took the high road. Would have been quite 4casty... alas, I did not. Stupid Jiminy Cricket.
This entire section is predicated on the hope that the Crew's playoff chances are even possible. Choose for yourself whether to allow those thoughts. I'll remind you of something our friend Red said, "Hope is a dangerous thing."
|8/4||Toronto @ Revs||TFC|
|8/10||Seattle @ Toronto||The Fightin' Deuces|
|8/10||DC United @ Philly||DC|
|8/10||New England @ Sporting KC||Sporting KC|
|8/10||Montreal @ Chicago||L'Impact|
|8/10||Houston @ Real Salt Lake||Salt Lake|
Misery Loves Company
DC United - Historically Bad
They are still the worst team in the league; I will include this statement every week it's true. (Chivas is getting close). By beating Montreal this week, DC now only needs 3 points in 12 games to NOT be the worst MLS team of all time. Way to blow your chance at making history, United. You even suck at sucking.
Still worse than the Crew.
The Crew are now on track to be eliminated at home vs Chicago on 9/21. Chris Rolfe is probably going to score 4 goals in that match, then go streaking through German Village. I hope he breaks his toe when he goes streaking through German Village. What 30 year-old would do such a thing? I mean, with all the cobblestone why wouldn't you at least wear sneakers?
DC United's Projected 2013 Points
Toronto FC's Projected 2013 Points
Projected Date DC United Eliminated From Playoffs
|8/31 vs NYRB|
Projected Date Toronto FC Eliminated From Playoffs
|9/11 vs Fire|
Projected Date Columbus Crew Eliminated From Playoffs
|9/21 vs Fire|
Date Toronto FC Fires Coach