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Columbus Crew 2013 MLS Playoff 4caster - Game 22

Each week, I update the Columbus Crew's playoff outlook based on their results and the those of their MLS Eastern Conference foes. This week the Crew lost in Houston.

Scott Halleran

Current Playoff Outlook: Drink To... Wait, Why Am I Drinking? I Forget.

The column this week is brought to you by St. George Spirits' Breaking & Entering Bourbon. If you like things that are great, check it out. You'll need it this season.

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Here are the standings as of 8/3, sorted by PPG. With Montreal's loss and New York's win, the Red Bulls can now legitimately say they're in the Supporters Shield race. This season is weird.

Standings_8

Here's my breakdown of the Crew's lame position in the MLS East Playoff race:

Stat
#
Notes

Projected Pts To Win Supporters Shield

57
Last year the Crew had 52 points but didn't make the playoffs. This year, 57 might be the best in the league? Am I taking crazy pills?

Projected Pts To Win East

57 With IMFC in free-fall and NYRB with the easier of the other playoff teams' remaining schedules (ROPPG), are the Red Bulls now in the driver's seat?

Projected Pts To Make Playoffs (5th Place in MLS Eastern Conference)

50 Nifty

Crew Projected Points

36

If they won their last 12 games, they would just barely win the Supporters Shield.

Current Crew Points

23 23 was Michael Jordan's number. I used to like 23.

Projected Additional Points Needed for Playoffs

27 50-23 = 27

PPG Needed for 27 pts in 12 games

2.25

This number looks more ridiculous each week.

Example Record Needed for 27 Pts in 12 Games

8-1-3

Now 5 games under .500, the Crew will likely endure their 1st losing season since 2007. There are no scenarios in which the Crew could win less than 8 or lose more than 3 of the last 12 games and still earn 27 or more points.


Season Projection

I use this as a way to predict what a team's record will be at a given point in the season. For instance, this is the first step I take when figuring out how soon DC and Toronto (and sadly, now, the Crew) will be eliminated from the playoffs. Remember: If a number is in white, it's real. If it's green, it's a projection.

This also tells us that if the Crew won 7 games in a row, they would only then be in 5th place. Barely.

Season_position_8

The Massive Report 4cast Challenge*

*Re-posting and extending deadline, as last week we were all distracted with post-TFC match sadness, the Macklemore/MLS paring and new Crew ownership.

So you've been reading this article, thinking to yourself, "Man, this guy is only somewhat right. If only he was completely correct, like myself." You want a shot at the title? Between now and August 9, send your predictions for:

  1. Points needed for MLS East Playoffs (5th place)
  2. Points the Crew will have at the end of the season

Those who correctly predict either category will be mentioned... nay, PRAISED in my season wrap-up article in late October. An overall winner will be awarded the following fancy prizes:

  • 1 victory beverage at Hendoc's, courtesy of Massive Report
  • An appearance on the 10/28/13 Massive Report Podcast, in which you will be expected to explain why you are so awesome/smart/attractive
  • Overalls

Send your picks to me via Twitter @4castnate or email (natebeckman@gmail.com). 1 pick per person, must be present at Hendoc's to drink victory beverage. Void where prohibited. Must be 18 or older to win. Must be 21 or over to consume booze at Hendoc's. No, Massive Report will not buy you booze if you're underage; you'll get a Diet Coke or something. I'll make up a tiebreaker in October if it is needed.

For the record, I've already published my predictions for the season in previous blog articles:

  • 51 - Points needed for 5th place in MLS Eastern Conference
  • 36 - Points the Crew will have at end of 2013 season

Who Do I Root For This Week?

Not even kidding, here... Last week I almost ditched the games in this section in favor of posting "New Ownership". Thought it too disrespectful to what the Hunts have done for the Crew over the years, so I took the high road. Would have been quite 4casty... alas, I did not. Stupid Jiminy Cricket.

This entire section is predicated on the hope that the Crew's playoff chances are even possible. Choose for yourself whether to allow those thoughts. I'll remind you of something our friend Red said, "Hope is a dangerous thing."

Date Match Root For
8/4 Toronto @ Revs TFC
8/10 Seattle @ Toronto The Fightin' Deuces
8/10 DC United @ Philly DC
8/10 New England @ Sporting KC Sporting KC
8/10 Montreal @ Chicago L'Impact
8/10 Houston @ Real Salt Lake Salt Lake

Misery Loves Company

DC United - Historically Bad
They are still the worst team in the league; I will include this statement every week it's true. (Chivas is getting close). By beating Montreal this week, DC now only needs 3 points in 12 games to NOT be the worst MLS team of all time. Way to blow your chance at making history, United. You even suck at sucking.

Toronto FC
Still worse than the Crew.

Columbus Crew
The Crew are now on track to be eliminated at home vs Chicago on 9/21. Chris Rolfe is probably going to score 4 goals in that match, then go streaking through German Village. I hope he breaks his toe when he goes streaking through German Village. What 30 year-old would do such a thing? I mean, with all the cobblestone why wouldn't you at least wear sneakers?

DC United's Projected 2013 Points
20
Toronto FC's Projected 2013 Points
28
Projected Date DC United Eliminated From Playoffs
8/31 vs NYRB
Projected Date Toronto FC Eliminated From Playoffs
9/11 vs Fire
Projected Date Columbus Crew Eliminated From Playoffs
9/21 vs Fire
Date Toronto FC Fires Coach
Labour Day